According the Central Statistical Office (CSO), April inflation remained unchanged at 7.2% from the previous month ending its streak of 4 straight months of decline:
Low fuel pump prices have been a significant contributor to downward pressure on inflation.
The trade balance was recorded at a deficit of K310.3 million (provisional) in March 2015, widening by 190% from a February 2015 deficit of K107.3 million:
This is the fourth trade deficit in a row.
The Central Bank is set to announce the second quarter 2015 policy rate decision (which currently stands at an all-time high of 12.5%) on May 11. The Kwacha has seen some strength and stability return in April (trading around K7.4 per US dollar) after experiencing volatility and depreciating to an all-time low of K7.7 per US dollar at the beginning of the month. This has been in no small part due to central bank intervention and the Government resolving the mining tax impasse.
With inflation seemingly under control and the Kwacha stabilizing (and potentially strengthening moving forward), could the new central bank Governor be tempted to cut the policy rate?
Trying to decipher this puzzle that is Zambia by using a variety of publicly available data (structured and unstructured) in conjunction with my own skill/experience. * * *