Novi Weekly Wrap Up - April 26 Edition

First quarter 2014 infrastructure spending and public debt figures released

K1bn was released for investments and special projects and allocated as follows:

However, the press release did not break down about K240.3m by project – only K759.7m of the K1bn released was broken down by project. Most of the infrastructure projects really intensify after the rainy season ends so the next 2 quarters should see more spending in this direction.

As at end of Q1 2014, external debt stood at US $3.16 billion (15.72% of GDP) whilst domestic debt stood at K20.2 billion (16.57% of GDP) – leaving total debt at 32.3% of GDP. So if we add in the recent $1bn dollar bond issuance, total debt (domestic and foreign) should be approximately K45.6bn (37.3% of GDP). The ratio the ministry of Finance used seems to be based on the un-rebased 2013 GDP figure. It will be interesting to see where that ratio is once the rebased GDP figures kick in. 

Inflation ticks up to 7.8%

April inflation increased by 0.1% from the previous month to 7.8% - driven by non-food items. This and the fact that the price of fuel increased this month will make for a very interesting policy rate decision by Bank of Zambia. Last month, the policy rate was increased by 175 basis points to 12% which was in an attempt to help prop up the Kwacha.  Inflation will definitely pick up sharply in May just as it did last year (though to a lesser extent) after fuel subsidies were removed. Will there be another increase in policy rate or perhaps keep it at 12%? We’ll see what the economists at BoZ come up with next week…

IZWE Loans lists for note program Lusaka Stock Exchange

Micro lender IZWE loans signed up for a K265m medium term note program on the LuSE which will enable the firm to raise capital when needed. The program will offer the investing public a different way to play the fixed income market in Zambia while simultaneously providing IZWE a cheaper source of capital than what commercial banks offer. The note program is sponsored by the Zambian arm of African Alliance Securities.

Could this also be the birth of commercial paper markets in Zambia? Of course firms would need to be vetted and rated but this could be a very useful avenue for raising capital moving forward. It will be very interesting to see how quickly other companies adopt this mode of capital-raising moving forward….

African Energy Resources signs MOU with Zesco

Australian listed African Energy Resources signed a power supply memorandum of understanding with Zesco. The non-binding agreement will see exploration of the possibility of Zambia importing 300MW of power from Botswana. Zesco will provide access to its technical capability and information to assist with the study (a fact which they emphasized in a press release this week), and corporate advisory group Maysen and Borowski will advise.

Even with Zambia poised to add about 660 MW of power to the grid – possibly by year end – demand is growing rapidly so the move to work on this as a back-up option for the near future is logical – that is until the 750MW Kafue Gorge Lower project comes on line within the next 4 years.

The LuSE All Share Index closed Friday at 5,968.17 points down by 0.71% from the previous close of 6,010.59 points. A total of 136,047 shares were transacted in 12 trades resulting in a turnover of K2,156,481.